Financial modeling is part art and part science, and in the hands of those inexperienced or deliberately seeking to obfuscate reality, potentially an exercise in wishful thinking if not outright deception. The truth is, nobody has a crystal ball that can unerringly predict future revenues, cash flows, expenses and other pro-forma information given the countless shifting variables which can influence these numbers, but with some foresight, analysis and careful planning, one can create a credible, defensible model that illustrates performance that is not “black swan” in nature and has a reasonable chance of being realized given the stated parameters.
We must also separate the mechanics of programming an Excel Workbook with inter-linked datasheets necessary to create desired pro-formas (e.g. the Income Statement / Profit & Loss, Cash Flow and Balance Sheets) with the planning necessary for information to logically flow throughout the model. This requires a certain amount of sophistication and understanding of how these items all relate to each other. As with any other programming, the mantra “garbage in, garbage out” is one to remember.
Following are some of the key pitfalls that I have observed in financial models, aside from incorrect calculations and formulas…
BEWARE PREDICTABLE “HOCKEY STICK” REVENUE GROWTH
It’s interesting to note the tendency that regardless of the business vertical or product or service offerings, so many revenue projections tend to follow an extremely predictable trend line; the first two to three years often show modest growth, but by Year Four revenues suddenly rocket upwards, buoyed no doubt by massive public recognition of the value of the company’s offerings and resulting in what analysts call a “hockey stick” profile.
This “default” profile more often than not reflects the need of a company seeking investment to demonstrate an attractive return on investment (ROI) within a time-frame that is not too long-term for most investment sources. Unfortunately, it is often arrived at by manipulating, consciously or sub-consciously, data in order to arrive at a desired result, rather than compiling data without regard to the desired result, and then following it to its conclusion. In other words, rather than letting the facts speak for themselves in order to form a theory, one arrives at the theory first and then cherry picks “facts” in order to prove the theory true.
To be sure, there are certainly legitimate circumstances for the “hockey stick” profile to emerge, but you must be confident that this is not the product of wishful thinking or the confluence of “perfect storm” conditions.
ASSUMPTIONS ARE NOT GROUNDED IN REALITY
More sophisticated reviewers of financial models understand that these exercises in analysis are not a Magic Eight-Ball but rather an artificial construct that is highly dependent upon the quality of data entered, the programming which drives the resulting pro-formas, and of course, the ability of the company to execute on the various aspects of the business plan which allegedly support the conclusions show in the financial projections.
All too often, those preparing the model will fail to cite sources from which data is extracted or will base projections on overly-optimistic third-party research which sometimes has an agenda of its own. While it is not always possible or practical for a company to conduct extensive primary research or have access to historical operational data to help support future projections of market conditions, customer behavior and trends, etc., it is vital for the sake of credibility in the due diligence process that the company err on the side of caution and present conservative projections which under-estimate revenues and over-estimate costs to provide more margin for error and adjustment to “reality on the ground” rather than pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking.
MISTAKING TAM FOR THE MARKET NICHE YOU ARE TARGETING
Another very common problem is that companies sometimes overstate the actual market their product(s) or service(s) are addressing, and paint an unrealistic picture of the actual market size. In marketing lingo, “total addressable market” (TAM) is a conclusion as to the size of a given market assuming no competition exists and the company can distribute its product/service without constraint. Of course, this is something of an artificial benchmark, because competition (even indirect) always exists, even for a brand new product/service, and achieving complete distribution is virtually impossible no matter the medium.
However, in reality most companies are targeting very specific niches within larger markets and when assessing market potential, they must recognize and acknowledge this. For example, if you are manufacturing men’s technical outdoor apparel, your TAM would have to be based on the industry’s definition of “technical” clothing, intended for the outdoors, and only for men. It would be irrelevant and erroneous to base your market size projections on total revenues realized from sales of newly manufactured clothing, which includes men, women, children and all of the various types of clothing within the broader category.
COSTS TO CAPTURE MARKET SHARE GROSSLY UNDERESTIMATED
Another error to avoid when projecting market share is the tendency to take “short-cuts” and make arbitrary decisions such as, “our company can capture 2% of the market by Year 3” simply because that seems like a modest slice of the pie and that 2% number nicely dovetails into sufficient revenues and net profits to make your model look attractive to investors.
Unfortunately, if you wish to be taken seriously and have a credible defense to skeptics and those playing devil’s advocate, you must work more granularly and outline the process by which you arrive at the projected market share. Even more importantly, you must be realistic about the costs involved to capture such share, which will involve marketing initiatives that cost very real dollars, even in a digital age. All too often, companies grossly underestimate the costs of marketing channels, the duration of campaigns, or assume that “word of mouth” and other free or low-cost solutions will provide the customer awareness, brand equity and penetration that they need.
CASH FLOW RELIES ON OPTIMUM PAYMENT CYCLES FOR A/R AND A/P
Another easy to overlook detail in a financial model is the assumption that is made regarding payment cycles for accounts receivable (A/R) and accounts payable (A/P) especially during challenging economic environments. There is a tendency to assume 30-day cycles for both, without taking into consideration industry practices, likely customer behavior, and the effect of tightened credit as a result of the global recession which began in 2008. Many companies naturally will be aggressive in seeking to collect on A/R, yet will drag out their A/P as long as possible to conserve cash. In order to maintain sufficient operating capital, it is critical when preparing a model that you assume that you will not be paid as quickly as you might like for your products/services, and you will still have to pay your bills in a relatively timely manner or face other consequences which may constrain operations.
CLOSING THOUGHTS ON FINANCIAL MODELING
While preparing a financial model can be daunting and time-consuming, when done properly it should provide a business with a useful tool for internal planning as well as raising outside capital, if that is the company’s intention. In my experience, financial models that project beyond 5 years out are unnecessary and so incredibly speculative as to be fairly worthless, and are usually discounted by reviewers anyway. While some modeling advocates like to provide a monthly breakdown over a 5-Year / 60-month period, this too is often unnecessary; many reviewers are happy with breaking out only Year 1 (and sometimes Year 2) by month, and some will settle for quarterly breakdowns in lieu of this.
Finally, since it is easy to make honest mistakes in constructing a model, even if operating from a template, having another knowledgeable party review the calculations and underlying assumptions is a great way to error-check and provide friendly challenges so the model can withstand less forgiving scrutiny.
If your business requires assistance in developing a financial model, or for other Business Plan development, strategic planning, marketing or project management needs, please visit Black Rock Consulting online or email us for a confidential discussion of your needs. Initial consultations are FREE OF CHARGE and WITHOUT FURTHER OBLIGATION.





Storytelling and Commerce: When Art Meets Business
Tags: business stories, business storytelling, coherency in business, compelling marketing, consistent marketing, credibility in business, credible marketing, defining mission, developing business character, gaining influence, storytelling for business, why stories matter
Fundamentally, humans seem hard-wired to appreciate and crave stories, and smart entrepreneurs and businesses instinctively understand this predisposition and will market themselves accordingly. In an age of 24/7 news cycles, the proliferation of media channels which didn’t exist a generation ago, and economic cycles which for many require constant reinvention and self-promotion to stand out from the competition, those who incorporate storytelling practices and techniques into their business are more apt to command the attention of both internal and external stakeholders, as well as customers.
THE ELEMENTS OF A SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS STORY
So let’s dive deeper and define the above and provide some concrete, business-related examples to stir up some entrepreneurial juices.
CREDIBLE AND COMPELLING
Telling a story which is credible may on the surface seem odd from the point-of-view of the world of fiction, but actually, even fantasy and science-fiction must conform to rules established by the author through the conventions of the narrative. Unlike ancient Greek tragedy playwriting, the presence of deus ex machina plot devices is viewed by most as sloppy and/or lazy writing and is long out of fashion.
On the business front, maintaining credibility with customers, as well as employees and outside vendors, is critical for the fiscal health of the enterprise, and is vital whenever outside capital is being solicited. This credibility can not only pertain to the manner in which the business is presented and positioned in external facing collateral, but may extend to the behavior of key employees as well, including senior management. Once credibility is lost, whether due to incompetence, malfeasance, or simply failure to act in an appropriate and timely manner to a perceived problem, it can be extremely difficult to regain trust.
Determining what make a narrative compelling might seem like a tall order, but if one analyzes stories across various cultures and genres, it becomes very clear that at its heart, the answer is quite straightforward – the audience must be emotionally invested in the outcome of the story. If you fail to engage and hook the audience, you’ve lost them, their attention will wander, and your chance of regaining their interest will likely be compromised since they have already pre-judged your storytelling ability.
For a business to have a compelling story, it is essential that prospective customers understand the product and/or service offerings, and furthermore, that a Unique Selling Proposition (USP) exist. USP is fancy marketing speak for a succinct description of what differentiates your business from the competition, and potentially what benefits customers will derive from purchasing from you and not your competitors. It is essential that a business owner, as well as any staff who interacts with prospective customers (which if you get down to it, is actually everyone) clearly understand and be able to articulate your company’s USP.
CONSISTENT, COHERENT AND CHARACTER-DRIVEN
Consistency is another hallmark of a well-told story, and this is true in both the fiction and non-fiction realms. Most often, this is a reflection of the tone and style of the story, which in written form are conveyed in the use of language and point-of-view. In the fictional world, different genres over time have developed certain conventions, and while it is certainly possible to “break the rules” and even mix genres at times, the storyteller must be very careful in doing so, because when expectations are defied, a certain amount of risk is entailed. A similar restriction applies to non-fiction writing, such as reporting, memoirs, text books and the like. For example, fictional elements and personal opinion are never supposed to co-mingle with what is reported as “news” or represented as a “true life account.” To do so violates fundamental precepts of the form and undermines, if not outright destroys, credibility.
Our final elements for inclusion are coherence and the importance of having memorable characters populate a story. Coherence might seem to some as a “no-brainer,” but poorly conceived, written and delivered stories can be found all around us without expending much effort to look. Sometimes coherence is sacrificed due to having too many people influencing the story, and in doing so, providing inconsistent guidance which creates a disjointed narrative. From the perspective of business, this is typically communicated through branding efforts and the development of vision, mission and positioning statements which communicate the company’s raison d’être. Businesses start to run into trouble when they cannot clearly define what it is they offer, what audience they serve, or why they are even in existence in the first place.
My final point regarding the creation (or featuring) of memorable characters highlights the fact that people tend to identify with or react emotionally to people (fictional or otherwise) who they aspire to be like, or someone they would like to befriend, or who represent a natural foe or adversary, or whose own story provides them with inspiration and meaning. As a business, talking about a corporate identity can seem rather cold and impersonal, and effective marketing often seeks to humanize the business by focusing on the personalities and achievements of management and staff, or at the very least, attractive spokespeople who will resonate with the target market. Some business leaders are naturally larger than life “characters” that the media quickly respond to, since writing stories about them is far easier than more bland or retiring personalities, while others will often invent or otherwise exaggerate certain qualities in order to draw attention and create publicity. There are certainly lessons to be learned from the colorful characters found throughout history as well as the present day, even if embellishments have invariably been added to those who really once existed, or walk the world today.
WHY STORIES MATTER
Stories, whether written down, acted out by performers, or delivered orally, form the backbone of any society. Stories communicate cultural values, important myths, and often convey history from the point of view of the story’s creator or communicator. They engage our interest on a visceral level and help us to make sense of not only what our senses tell us on an individual level, but to process the messages conveyed by our environment on a larger macro level as well.
Obviously, this article cannot possibly delve into the complexities of applying time-proven storytelling techniques within a business environment, but it hopefully does make the case that creative license, if not misapplied with the intent to deceive, should be part of every business toolbox.
Author’s Note: This posting originally ran on the blog Serial Startups on May 26, 2011…